Three-year review

I think enough time has lapsed for a portfolio review.

Neutral news:
Over the last three-and-a-half years, my stock picks have been about average with the market.

Good news:
Over the last year-and-a-half, I have outperformed the market.  I think a portion of that is luck, but it is encouraging.


Lessons:
The market is NOT efficient.  In 2009, believing the efficient market hypothesis I learned in college, I picked a variety of small-cap stocks with minimal research.  Those stocks did not perform as well as the market.  Starting in mid-2011, I became more careful with the stocks I invested in, and performance has increased. 

The real test will be the next market downturn.  It's relatively easy to perform well in a good market by simply buying stocks that are more volatile and getting lucky.  If you can make money in a good market and weather a downturn with minimal losses, that will show that there's a good chance you have some skill.

Conclusion:
Some room for optimism, but must get better.